Andy Burnham used his first Labour conference speech as Prime Minister, delivered in Liverpool on 29 September 2026, to promise a change of economic direction. He said he would make a break with the direction of the past 40 years and put Britain on a new path. For business owners and their advisers, the question is how much of it can be paid for, and what it means for tax. Chancellor John Healey’s Budget on 28 October will show how much of it survives.

The main economic proposals

The centrepiece was a National Care Service for England. Burnham described it as free at the point of use, with care that does not erode people’s savings. The Health Foundation puts the cost of making social care, free at the point of use at £18.5 billion.

To help pay for it, Burnham announced a reform of the state pension triple lock. From April 2030 it would be replaced by a cheaper double lock. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) explained that the formula would remove the “ratchet” built into the current system while still guaranteeing rises of at least inflation or 2.5 per cent. Labour estimates savings of about £15 billion a year by the end of the 2030s, rising to £50 billion by 2050.

The speech also leaned towards a bigger public role in infrastructure. The government will bring forward a bill to repeal the ban on public ownership of water companies, and mayors will gain powers to block “excessive bonuses” for water bosses. A publicly owned Great British Grid will compete for electricity connection projects, funded from within GB Energy’s existing budget. Councils will be able to take over empty homes for public housing, and the government intends to make home ownership easier for young people by cutting the deposit required. Burnham stressed partnership with private companies, which helped calm fears of a costly nationalisation drive.

Burnham also promised to stay within the government’s fiscal rules, and he ruled out funding the care service through borrowing.

The barriers to delivery

The biggest barrier is the timing gap. Savings from the pension change will not arrive until around 2040, so economists say national insurance or income tax would have to rise in the short term to fund the service from 2030. The IFS’s Jonathan Cribb agreed that the savings would be relatively small in the first few years but rise substantially over time. Paul Johnson, the IFS’s former director, backed the pension reform in principle but was blunt about the funding claim, saying the idea that it will pay for free social care any time soon “is for the birds”. Burnham himself conceded on Times Radio that if there is a shortfall, he would have to be honest about where the money comes from.

That candour collides with Labour’s manifesto. Andrew Wishart, senior UK economist at Berenberg, argued that the Prime Minister had implicitly acknowledged the plan cannot be delivered while keeping the 2024 promise not to raise personal tax rates, with any argument for a tax rise likely to wait until closer to the next election. Burnham acknowledged the political risk, saying he may pay a political price.

The second barrier is the bond market. The Debt Management Office sold £4.25 billion of ten-year gilts at an average yield of 5.38 per cent, the highest since September 1999. Reports suggest Healey has already lost roughly half of the £23.6 billion fiscal buffer the government inherited, and consumer price inflation rose to 3.1 per cent in the year to August. Every additional basis point on gilt yields ends up in swap rates, mortgage offers and household budgets. The mention of fiscal rules kept the market calm on the day, but scepticism remains. Nigel Green of deVere Group said that in the bond market credibility is the only currency that counts.

The third barrier is detail. The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) said business needs more detail on how the Great British Grid will operate, and warned that state control should not become the default answer to poor performance in utilities. Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has also argued the plan would not raise enough and would mean tax rises.

Reaction from business and the markets

The reaction so far is best described as cautious. On the plus side, the IFS welcomed the pension reform, saying the change would prevent the state pension being locked into an ever-increasing level of generosity compared with workers’ earnings. Shevaun Haviland, the BCC’s director general, called it a powerful speech that signalled a willingness to make tough choices, although she said next month’s Budget would be the critical test. The BCC had proposed cutting employer national insurance for under-25s, funded in part by replacing the triple lock.

Elsewhere in the business community, businesses welcomed individual measures such as the tax cut for pubs and clubs, but are still unsure what “Manchesterism” would mean if applied UK-wide and remain worried about tax rises at the Budget. The CBI’s chief executive, Rain Newton-Smith, told reporters that the real answer on how business feels would come on 29 October, the day after the Budget.

What accountants are saying

At the time of writing, we had not found a formal ICAEW or ACCA response to the conference speech itself. Their positions since Burnham took office, however, indicate what they will look for on 28 October.

ICAEW’s chief executive, Alan Vallance, said its chartered accountants are clear that there must be no more business tax rises. A poll of ICAEW members found that nearly 57 per cent wanted easing the tax burden on business to be Burnham’s top priority, even though many members were positive about his plans for regional investment. The institute’s Tax Faculty has also urged the government to be more ambitious in reforming business rates to incentivise growth and stop penalising investment.

ACCA’s approach is similar. It wrote to the Prime Minister to say the three foundations of a good tax system are simplicity, certainty and stability, and called for a phased programme of tax simplification.

What this means for your business

Burnham’s speech promises higher public spending while ruling out borrowing, and it defers the difficult tax choices until later. Expect that tension to show up in the Autumn Budget. Business owners should be cautious about assuming that business taxes are safe, and should model their finances against the possibility of further changes to employment costs, national insurance and income tax.

For tailored advice on how the Autumn Budget may affect your business or personal finances, contact the team at CMA Accountancy.